7-26-02, Voice in the Crowd
It Rained on
Napoleon's Parade
By Pete Chaney
IPS Features
Napoleon is recognized as one of the greatest generals and tacticians of all time. His military genius and charisma almost conquered Europe and Russia. He was the most feared general of his age. But a couple of mistakes were costly. He didn’t think the Russian people would abandon Moscow after setting fire to it, leaving his hungry army in an empty city.
Then there was Waterloo.
For all his genius, he didn’t pay attention to the weatherman.
It rained the day he met Wellington.
Troops, mules and cannons were mired in mud and immovable.
In his book “The Shipwreck of their Hopes,” Peter
Cozzens treats the blunders made by commanders on both sides in the battle for
Chattanooga. It amounted to whether
the Union or Confederate forces made the most mistakes. Petty jealousies, egos and plain stupidity contributed to the
tactics.
In this century, US Marines landing at Tarawa were cut
down by machine gun fire when they were dumped with full field gear hundreds of
yards off shore in a rolling sea. An
aerial photo interpreter failed to see the barrier reef that prevented landing
craft to come closer.
It’s a miracle that any military maneuver succeeds.
It’s a wonder that any battle is won.
The same with political campaigns. Ask
anyone who has been in the military, or anyone who has ever been part of an
election planning group.
There is an amusing concept that campaigns are carefully
planned in some smoke filled back room. That’s
like saying a general with a computer will sit down and plan the perfect attack
with a predictable outcome of victory. Nothing is certain—because the human element is involved.
Intangibles from election day weather to individual dispositions play a
part.
A campaign has its similarity to a war game.
An objective is conceived. Volunteers
step in. Paid so-called experts are
put on the payroll. Money is sought
to grease the wheels of the road to elective office.
A lot of money is needed. Each
year politicking gets more expensive. Each
year the man with the biggest war chest has the edge.
Not always, though. Ask
Malcolm Forbes. He couldn’t buy
the American presidency despite his millions.
This year’s general election in Tennessee is a classic
textbook case of campaigning and mis-campaigning. The Volunteer state leans toward the Democratic Party, but
the moderate, middle vote is always decisive.
Those voters who are not cast in concrete with either party or ideology
make the difference.
Al Gore can testify to this.
In recent years, more moderate Republican conservatives
didn’t paid attention while the far right faction began taking over the party
machinery. It was a natural step
for an ultra-conservative to step in as the candidate for governor of Tennessee.
It didn’t hurt being in congress and able to do favors during a
three-year plan. A lot of
Republicans made early commitments and were obligated.
His theme song was one tune—anti-income tax.
He even went so far as to say he would “repeal” any income tax passed
by the legislature. Any elementary school civics student knows a governor can’t
repeal a tax. He can veto
legislation, but one vote overrides a veto.
The governor has to follow laws passed by the legislature.
Along came a Republican more moderate in his viewpoint.
He had legislative and political experience, a successful business
background and had Republican friends across the state.
His problem was he got on the dance floor late.
He had to play catch-up. His
loyal supporters and volunteers were convinced he had a more realistic ideology
of what they wanted the party to be.
Not too long ago a Republican candidate for congress
made the statement that Republicans were more Christian than Democrats.
He dropped that line quickly when reminded that an election is not won by
pure members of either party. The
crossovers and the independents are necessary to win.
While the two GOP candidates in this election have been
slugging it out, the chief Democrat contender listened and came up with the
slogans and themes to outdistance the main focus of the supposed Republican
campaign. Maybe he took a page from
the strategy of a fellow named Bill Clinton who used to live in the White House.
Whenever the GOP controlled congress came up with a
program, they found the President had already staked a claim to it.
He was smart enough not to align himself with the extreme liberal
elements of the Democratic Party. In
some issues, he was even more conservative than the Republicans.
Bogus polls are always bought and touted in an election.
Someone in an ivy tower calls a couple of hundred people out of thousands
and announces the outcome of an election months in advance.
Throw into this strange stew a governor who was elected
four years ago with a clear mandate to lead the state.
When the economic clouds began to build, he said the forbidden word:
income tax. And his popularity
hasn’t stopped paying for that.
The governor is still the titular head of the Republican
Party.
One candidate for governor and one for the US Senate act
as if they are running against the sitting governor, a member of their own
party. It’s hard to remember a
more vicious inter party ruckus. There
are instances where members of the GOP are shunning each other because of
opposing stances on candidates and issues—especially the effort to tag someone
the income tax label.
From Whitwell to the White House, Republicans are
concerned. A Republican president
is trying to hold the edge in governorships and congress.
Only the Democratic Party is the winner in this dogfight.
In the long run, it seems the candidate who makes the
least mistakes is the victor. You
can take all the polls and endorsements and consider them.
It’s that silent voice made in the secrecy of the voting booth that
counts.
All anyone can hope for is that a majority of voters
will look honestly at the candidates and issues to pick the right man in a
troubled time for Tennessee.
Maybe it’ll rain or some voters will be so turned off
they’ll just go fishing that day.
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