9-20-02, Voice in the Crowd
Defeat from the Jaws
of Victory
By Pete Chaney
IPS Features
Maybe it’s some form of political masochism, but candidates often seemed determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Success spoils them. So they try to make it more difficult, almost as if they court failure.
Look at the Tennessee gubernatorial race a year ago.
Only two main players were prominent: Democrat Phil Bredesen and
Republican Van Hilleary. Phil had the credentials of a successful businessman and
former mayor of Nashville. And he
had the personal wealth to augment contributions which were plentiful.
Van was on his fourth term in the House of Representatives and was the
darling of the ultra conservatives who had gradually taken control of the GOP in
Tennessee.
No one was in sight to effectively challenge Phil.
But there was unrest in the more moderate elements of the Republican
Party. Some felt Van was too
extreme and they wanted someone more acceptable to the independent voter in the
state.
Enter Jim Henry. He
had all the credentials any candidate could want.
Distinguished Viet Nam veteran, he had been mayor of his hometown of
Kingston and served 12 years in the state legislature, was house minority leader
and was state party chairman. He
had taken a small company and turned it into a multi-state industry helping
dysfunctional children. Military-political-business
experience should have spelled winner.
But he didn’t have the big bucks in his war chest to
run a vigorous campaign.
Van did. He
had been running for governor for three years, receiving donations and pledges
of support. He was the was the
standard bearer of the right and appealed especially to the ladies with his
clean cut image. He has the
likeable boy-next-door look.
Jim ran a limited campaign relying on volunteers mainly.
His TV commercials were those of a mature man of common sense and
business acumen. He had every
newspaper except for one of one to endorse him.
(The Chattanooga Times was for him with the Free Press for Hilleary.)
Three weeks before the election he was within single digit polling of
Van. Then came the vicious income
tax ad. There was never any
documentation that Jim favored a state income tax, but Van’s commercials said
he was for it. Jim had signed a
paper Jim signed to aid Governor Ned McWherter when he tried to look at ways to
aid school reform. This was shown
as evidence of Jim favoring an income tax.
Jim lost heavily, but many from his camp were bitter.
It was the perfect opportunity for Phil’s people to
gain the moderate Republican and independent voters. Phil did write a letter to Jim’s supporters praising the
way the campaign was run and favorably comparing his and Jim’s fiscal
philosophy. There were volunteers
for the asking, but it wasn’t followed up.
Many who supported Jim will stay with the party
regardless of the candidate. Some
will favor Phil who has moved well away from the left and more toward the right,
being against gun control and for stringent criminal penalties.
In fact, if you looked at the TV commercials and knew no better, you
would wonder who was the Democrat and who was the Republican.
Phil clearly has it on Van in business experience, but
he hasn’t the charisma. Phil’s
TV ads are boring and he talks of bland issues that don’t excite the people.
Van has a dynamic TV portfolio. He
has showcased his military experience, of which he should be proud but modest.
He ties his policies in with the excitement of a NASCAR race in an
attention getting commercial. More
than likely if his handlers could find a Titan or Volunteer uniform they would
put it on Van.
In fact, some said the election could depend on the
Titans, reasoning if they had a good season Phil would win, since he has the
credit for bringing the team to Tennessee.
If not, Van would win.
At this point, Phil seems to be resting confidently on a
single digit polling. The worst is
yet to come.
Van has the advantage of popular elective officials on
his side. Sen. Fred Thompson.
Sen. Bill Frist. President George W. Bush.
Vice President Dick Cheney.
Of course, Phil has Al Gore, but doesn’t want him any
more than Al wanted the support of fellow Democrat Bill Clinton.
In the closing weeks of the campaign you can watch Van
accuse Phil of bankrupting Nashville, of being for a state income tax (remember
truth has nothing to do with it) and of being associated with Gore and Clinton.
Many in Phil’s camp are counting on Van to self
destruct in view of his short fuse. His
insiders will be watching to keep him calm.
The governor’s chair belongs to whoever can have the charisma to charm
the people.
Remember, ability has nothing to do with who will win.
If it did, a fellow named John McCain would be sitting in the White House
now. And Jim Henry would be the Republican candidate for governor.
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